DONALD Trump’s new wave of sanctions to Iran will “cripple” the country’s economy, dealing a “major blow” to its growth and likely sparking major public discontent, according to a new analysis released by top economists.
Oxford Economics warned the second wave of US sanctions attacking Iran’s main resources, its oil industry and crude exports, will badly hit its economy.
The UK-based global forecasting company wrote in its analysis: ”We expect the sanctions to tip the economy back into recession, with GDP now seen contracting by 3.7 percent in 2019, the worst economic performance in six years.”
These sanctions will come into force on November 4, three months after the US originally reimposed punitive economic measures on Tehran.
The sanctions were originally halted in 2015, when China, Russia, Britain, France, Germany, the European Union, Russia, the UK, Iran and the US signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action - also known as Iran nuclear deal.
But after Mr Trump pulled out from the deal in May, he announced a new wave of economic measures to prevent Iran from making nuclear weapons.
Mohamed Bardastani and Maya Senussi from Oxford Economics wrote: “The next round aiming at the country’s economic lifeline – the oil industry – and will deliver a major blow to growth.”
The economists added that in order to survive, Iran should “ensure that the remaining key trading partners will continue buying its oil and not bow to US demands.”
But economic partners like the European Union, closer to Washington than Iran, could cut down or completely halt their imports to avoid a clash with the US president.
The economists said: “The EU, Korea, Japan and UAE collectively accounted for 41 percent of the average 2.6million barrels per day Iran exported in the first half of 2018.
“As US allies, and under significant pressure from the US administration, they are all likely to cut down (if granted waivers by the US, which is unlikely with the hawkish US stance towards Iran) or completely halt their crude imports from Iran after November.
“President Trump said the US aims to bring Iranian exports down to zero.”